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FORCADELL and the University of Barcelona (UB) presented the findings of the 2026 Real Estate Market Report: Current Situation and Outlook to the media this morning. The report anticipates a slowdown in Spain’s residential real estate market in 2026 and 2027. According to the forecasts included in the report, home sales will decline by approximately 8% in each of the two years. Prices, however, will continue to rise: the report forecasts an increase of slightly more than 10% in 2026, followed by a slowdown in the rate of growth to below 5% by the end of 2027, without anticipating a widespread decline.
These forecasts come against the backdrop of an economy that continues to grow —GDP increased by 2.7% year-on-year in the third quarter, according to preliminary data from Spain’s National Statistics Institute (INE)— but is showing signs of weakening: the unemployment rate rose to 10.18% in the third quarter, while inflation stood at 4.9% in October, its highest level since February 2023, according to preliminary estimates. This is compounded by tighter financial conditions.
Insufficient new housing construction stands out as one of the structural imbalances in the residential market, where difficulties in accessing both homeownership and rental housing persist. Meanwhile, the commercial real estate sector continues to record significant activity, particularly in logistics, alongside increasingly demanding requirements in the office and retail markets.
According to Ivan Vaqué, CEO of FORCADELL, “in 2006, the housing market was characterised by financial excesses and credit-related risks. Twenty years later, the main imbalance is different: a shortage of supply. Without more development-ready land, faster licensing procedures and stable regulations, no demand-side measure will make housing more affordable.”
Meanwhile, Dr. Gonzalo Bernardos, editorial director of the report and Professor of Economics at the University of Barcelona, points out: “the fact that home sales are expected to fall by around 8% in 2026 and 2027 does not mean that prices will decline. The underlying problem remains the same: there are not enough homes to meet demand, which continues to be high. And as long as this situation does not change, prices will continue to rise, although at a more moderate pace in 2027.”
1. Home sales will lose momentum in 2026 and 2027. The report forecasts a decline in transactions of around 8% in both years. Prices will continue to rise, although growth is expected to slow to below 5% by the end of 2027, following a projected increase of slightly more than 10% in 2026.
2. The shortage of new housing will continue to put pressure on the market. In 2025, construction began on 137,330 homes in Spain, equivalent to approximately 18% of the 762,540 homes started in 2006, the peak year in the series analysed in the report.
3. The need for prior savings makes homeownership more difficult. A lack of financial resources to cover the down payment and costs associated with purchasing a home remains one of the main barriers, particularly for young people and households without family support.
4. The mortgage market presents fewer risks than in 2006. New mortgage lending for home purchases amounted to €82.749 billion in 2025, compared with €170.298 billion in 2006. In 2025, 74.6% of the total volume of mortgage lending granted was at fixed interest rates, according to the Bank of Spain.
5. Housing prices in Spain have risen faster than the EU average. Between 2019 and 2025, the cumulative nominal increase in housing prices was 44.8% in Spain, compared with 34.5% across the European Union.
6. The supply of available rental housing has fallen by 35% in four years. According to data from the Rental Observatory included in the report, the number of homes available on the rental market declined by approximately 35% between December 2021 and December 2025. This figure reflects changes in available rental supply, not the total stock of rental housing.
7. Rental prices will continue to rise in 2027, although at a more moderate pace. After a cumulative increase of 46.9% between 2018 and 2025, the report forecasts that rents will rise by no more than 4% annually in 2027.
8. The elimination of tourist accommodation in Barcelona would have a limited impact on prices. The report questions whether the planned removal, in November 2028, of the 10,721 properties holding active tourist accommodation licences (Q3 2026) would significantly increase the supply of long-term rental housing.
9. Inflation and interest rates add uncertainty to the outlook for 2027. The report examines a scenario shaped by persistent inflationary pressures that could prompt further interest rate increases by the European Central Bank (ECB), raising the cost of mortgage financing.
1. The logistics sector maintains strong momentum, despite a shortage of modern properties. Between January and September 2026, take-up reached 738,105 m² in Catalonia (+70% year-on-year) and 968,066 m² in Madrid (+31%). Demand is focused on efficient, well-connected logistics platforms, while limited availability is encouraging occupiers to move towards more distant metropolitan areas.
2. The office market shows uneven performance, with increasingly selective demand. Between January and September 2026, take-up reached 252,000 m² in Barcelona (+2.9% year-on-year) and 301,000 m² in Madrid (−21.2%). Efficient, flexible and well-located buildings attract the greatest interest from companies, while properties that are less suited to evolving market requirements face greater challenges in securing occupiers.
3. The retail market is developing at two different speeds. Barcelona’s main shopping streets continue to attract interest and maintain high rental levels, while demand in secondary locations is more sensitive to prices and property characteristics.
4. Legal certainty will be a key factor for real estate investment in 2027. Rising financing costs and regulatory uncertainty will encourage a greater concentration of capital in high-quality assets with stable income streams and established locations, with logistics among the sectors showing favourable fundamentals.
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